It's no longer about Brexit
Friday, March 29, 2019
I joined the final leg of the March to Leave from Fulham to Parliament Square today. I did so with a heavy heart. Parliament is unable to agree terms to leave the EU, but unwilling to leave without an agreement. That is currently the only way available to it to implement the people's decision. While it's not ideal, I don't fear it. We could save ourselves the severance payment agreed (for no good legal reason) by our Prime Minister. Every business I have inside information about is prepared for it and I have very little sympathy with any businesses so imprudent as not to be.
If we leave with no deal on April 12, negotiations on future relationships can begin in earnest with our trading partners, including the EU. They can be conducted – as they should be – by an independent British Government. Given the drafting of Article 50, which is designed to disadvantage a country giving notice to Leave, this was always likely to be the best interim outcome. I would have gone straight for it had I been in Mrs May's kitten heels, using the notice period entirely to prepare for a no deal exit and declining seriously to discuss the future relationship until those preparations were satisfactorily in place. Like those prudent business people in relation to their own affairs, my first concern would have been to prepare for the worst before aiming for the best.
I made my living negotiating agreements. I have many friends who did the same. We are all of the opinion that, had the UK taken this approach, we would have been spared the humiliation of watching our PM shuttle back and forth to the EU as a supplicant. Instead an orderly queue of the EU's five presidents (none elected) would have formed up outside Number 10.
I am now more concerned with the threats to our nation's democracy that Brexit has revealed than about Brexit itself. This morning I was so concerned that I told Mrs P the Second this march would probably be my last political act. I was despondent for the 17.4 million voters urinated on from a great height by our political class. I was angry at our far-worse-than-useless mainstream media which has vilified, smeared and defamed them for the last three years. I was fearful for all of us – Leave and Remain – whose future mode of government is at stake.
I am less concerned, upset and angry this evening. Why? I met my people. Not the savages the BBC and Guardian say they are but sensible British folk. I saw no extremists. I met no racists (in fact the marchers were diverse). We talked to each other as we marched; far more in sorrow and sincere concern than in anger. We even discussed our worries for our European neighbours in the chaos the mishandling of Brexit has caused. When provoked by Remain counter-protesters I feared that less temperate elements among us might give the media what they were loitering in the hope of filming. Instead we just made an "L" sign on our foreheads and chanted "Losers" at them. Even they (mostly) smiled.
I always knew in my heart that the Establishment media portrayal of Leave voters was just a succession of vile smears, but when you swim in a sea of lies it's hard not to get wet. Today did me a lot of good – and not just because of healthy exercise in beautiful sunshine.
As Nigel Farage said in Parliament Square, this is not about Brexit now, it's about "who we are". Yes, we have been sorely disappointed by our political class. They have sold us out and betrayed us but they have also taken the scales from our eyes. Those of us who have long said that, under an over-mighty state, unsavoury types are bound to be drawn to lording it over their fellow men while living on them as parasites were considered cynical at best and extreme at worst. Now all living generations have learned that we were, if anything, too kind in our assessment. Brexit has been an education and three charming Yorkshire ladies in the pub at lunchtime readily agreed with my prediction that the British people will not allow our discredited political class to talk down to us again.
They have been exposed as charlatans at best and idiots at worst.
It’s about democracy now. Political sophists have quibbled about what democracy really means in this context and I confess they had befuddled my thinking. I learned from the people I marched with today that— whatever it means — it’s not this. "They've cheated us", one lady told me and I think she spoke for many – including many decent Remainers prepared to abide by the majority decision. It’s not cricket to ignore the most significant popular vote in British history. It just isn't. Whether Britain will do better or worse economically outside the EU was not even discussed today. Instead we worried about saving our country whose legislators have shamefully turned their backs on us.
During his short speech in Parliament Square (not on the same stage, though the Guardian would like to deceive you, as Tommy Robinson and UKIP) Mr. Farage quoted (without attribution) the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis who said recently on Question Time that this is a treaty that:
"would only be signed by a nation defeated at war"
The marchers had already cheered the news that May's treaty had been rejected for a third (and surely a final) time. Farage promised that, if we didn't leave on the new date of April 12 (and he admitted he feared we would be betrayed yet again) that he would return to politics to fight the European Parliament elections. We are not going to give up, he told us and in the end, we are going to win. I hope he's right but my confidence is shaken. After all, I had never imagined Parliament's Remain majority would dare to defy the people as they have.
The options now are:
- We leave with no (finalised) deal on April 12, or
- The EU allows an extension on terms that will include our staging elections to their fig leaf of a pretend parliament and (probably) another referendum.
I believe Farage's new Brexit Party would win the ensuing European Parliament elections dramatically. So does he and he hopes the EU Council will fear that outcome sufficiently to refuse the extension. As for a second referendum he believes that Remainers disgusted by the Establishment assault on democracy would boost the Leave vote so that we would win with an increased majority.
After the march and before the speeches I adjourned to the pub with an agreeable chap I had walked the final miles with. We were joined by another chap up from Dorset. Both were business people. Both, like me, had (unlike most of our political class) actually engaged in international business. None of us were unduly concerned about leaving with no deal. Business, we agreed, is done in spite of government not because of it. It’s the politicians who are (a) in a mess and (b) – as always – vastly over-estimating their own economic importance.
One of my companions wryly observed that it might even be better for the country's economy if the Brexit saga dragged on for longer as it was preventing the idiot politicians from screwing other things up at their usual rate. In such company my faith returned. We Brits are ill-served by our politicians (who isn't?) but there's damn-all wrong with us as a nation – however bad we may look in the world's eyes right now.
Gentle readers, do you agree?
I am 100% sure people of Britain going to take right decision, they are smart people and knows really well whats good for them.
Posted by: Jospeh Brown | Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 10:14 AM
A serious change is in the offing. Whether it happens or not is down to the will of the participants to negotiate with heads not hearts. Not from fear, but from hope.
I tend to look at history for parallels and can only think of one significant period that has enough synergy, that would be the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the enlightenment. Not long after the time of Edmund Burke and of course Tom Paine. The decline of the Whigs, the eventual overturning of Rotten Boroughs and abolition of slavery.
Posted by: Bill Sticker | Friday, April 05, 2019 at 03:31 AM
If either or both of the two main parties collapse, change is possible. I don’t underestimate the testicular fortitude of the British nation. It just needs a crisis to call it forth.
Posted by: Tom | Thursday, April 04, 2019 at 11:54 PM
It seems to me that the whole political system of the UK has collapsed when faced with the task of dealing with a hefty dose of real democracy.
What are the prospects of a wholesale massive redesign from top to bottom?
A complete rethink on a blank sheet of paper. What a great opportunity this humiliating shambles gives us.
The country has not got the collective balls to even think about it.
Posted by: Matt | Thursday, April 04, 2019 at 10:30 PM
"Fear" is the right verb. Democracy is not a particularly virtuous way to resolve societal disputes (as the Brexit saga has demonstrated). The majority may well get things seriously wrong, as it did in Germany in the 1930s, and will often use its power to treat minorities badly – e.g. in the past ethnic minorities and homosexuals or, in a more modern and relevant example, "the rich" who are pretty badly treated throughout the Western World. Still it has been the best alternative yet developed to violence as a way to settle disputes – because it had a reputation for general, if messy, fairness. I care about Brexit, no question. I think we're missing a chance to build a better economy and a more responsive, accountable democracy that pays more attention to the actual concerns of real people – as opposed to the largely imaginary concerns of academia. But I am sincerely more concerned that the selfish, snobbish, arrogant behaviour of our political "leaders" could further damage an already discredited system of governance and open up the risk of actual violence. Even nice people lash out if they feel threatened, despised and ignored.
Posted by: Tom | Monday, April 01, 2019 at 03:55 PM
The usual way for people to leave any situation they don't want is to leave on a no deal. They then look around for changes to bits they are unhappy with till they have something they want. Our treasonous politicians really are showing their contempt for us and I for one am happy that now the general public is seeing it. In the past most have been too dozy to see it and even the better educated have continually voted for them because they want to change it from the inside. We now know that isn't possible and I fear that violence is the only way this will be sorted.
Posted by: Lord T | Monday, April 01, 2019 at 01:26 PM
I have to believe the government lawyers would have detected such an error, but I haven’t done the legal analysis myself.
Posted by: Tom | Monday, April 01, 2019 at 11:47 AM
Do you believe this will succeed?
https://robintilbrook.blogspot.com/2019/03/english-democrats-bring-case-to-get.html#comment-form
Posted by: Tcheuchter | Monday, April 01, 2019 at 10:46 AM
I agree 100% ... in fact I would not be able to address the vexing question of Brexit with such equanimity.
Posted by: S3S | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 06:58 PM
I hope if it comes to that the new MEPs won’t serve their full terms. I shall vote for whomever can do most damage to the Remain camp. In my predominantly Remain London constituency with a Remainiac MP, I’m not sure who that will be.
Posted by: Tom | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 06:12 PM
I fully agree.
Posted by: JuliaM | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 03:51 PM
“I am less concerned, upset and angry this evening. Why? I met my people. Not the savages the BBC and Guardian say they are but sensible British folk. I saw no extremists. I met no racists (in fact the marchers were diverse). ”
Kudos.
Posted by: James Higham | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 01:51 PM
What good will it do if Farage and his party get on the EU Gravy train and are able to fulminate uselessly for another 4 years in the EU sham Parliament ? Another General Election under FPTP voting is another democratic voting scandal .
We the people do not have the means for real change . PR voting would do it . That is why it was never on the AV referendum paper . I shall vote for UKIP the Party that forced a referendum out of smarmy "call me Dave " .
Posted by: adams | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 12:04 PM
Yes I noticed that. At least it was (apart from The Guardian slyly giving the false impression that the rally with Tommy Robinson was part of the same event) reasonably neutral. I expected us to be vilified more. Video cameramen and photographers were among us focusing on the rougher-looking marchers, seeking to portray us as ignorant thugs. Ethnic minority marchers, young women and the generally respectable looking were of no interest to them as they didn’t fit their narrative. I asked one rather foul mouthed lady marcher not to f-bomb the Remainers who came to yell at us, saying “the cameras are on us, let’s look like the sweet and reasonable ones here” and she cheerfully complied. I didn’t see any other Leave marcher behave inappropriately. The press must have been terribly disappointed.
Posted by: Tom | Sunday, March 31, 2019 at 05:38 AM
I couldn't agree more. The people have been betrayed their politicians and lied to by the media.
When a democratic decision has been made it should be upheld and that means that we should leave now whatever the consequences.
Did you notice that the 'Remain' rally got a lot coverage whereas the 'Leave' rally got barely (if any) coverage by the media?
Posted by: CherryPie | Saturday, March 30, 2019 at 11:04 PM
First my usual browser (Safari) wouldn't let me get onto your blog, so for a while I used Firefox but eventually that too wouldn't let me get on. Oddly, it now seems to work. Funny old thing, the internet. Or maybe it's me that's the funny old thing. Anyway, thank god (if there is one) I now have access to your musings and travelogues.
Weeping and gnashing of teeth now confined to the Brexit debacle.
Posted by: Tcheuchter | Saturday, March 30, 2019 at 07:17 PM
Welcome back. You were missed. There is no new site. The new domain just redirects to the old site. I’m not sure why you had a problem but now I’m worried I’ve lost other long-standing readers too. ☹️
Posted by: Tom | Saturday, March 30, 2019 at 01:34 PM
O/t. So glad you posted on Longrider's blog as it gave me a link to your new site. My browser wouldn't allow me onto your old typepad site causing much weeping and gnashing of teeth. I now have a lot of reading to do :)
Posted by: Tcheuchter | Saturday, March 30, 2019 at 11:16 AM
Yes, I agree!
I never thought we could be so shamefully let down by our political class. We are entering a crisis of political legitimacy and it is crucially important that we do not give up. Bring it on!
Posted by: Sam Vara | Friday, March 29, 2019 at 10:17 PM