Is Trump's win a cause for celebration?
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election tells us something. It's hard to be certain what that something is — apart from the fact that opinion polls, even now exit polls, have an inherent left wing bias. Perhaps because conservative voters now seem to delight in lying to them
The American people have rejected the political establishment. Those of us who oppose that establishment therefore have grounds to celebrate. We should take a happy moment to revel in the discomfiture of our enemies and certainly shed no tears for the corrupt Clinton clan, but our celebrations should be muted and perhaps tinged with fear.
During the BBC News live coverage one of the pundits said that, in a sense, this was a contest between two New York Democrats. Mr Trump was a contributor to the Clintons in the past. Like the Democrats, he is a man who speaks of government in terms of power. He is certainly no Ronald Reagan.
His answers to his nation's problems involve more government, not less. The free market would not "build that wall". The free market is pulling in the people he wants it to keep out! He has promised the people of Detroit that he will rebuild the automotive industry there just at the point when free markets are reshaping it in a disruptive and possibly lethal way.
As a businessman, he may be expected to be sympathetic to the concerns of American business. That is not necessarily a good thing. Although our socialist opponents often mistakenly condemn us as capitalist lackeys, classical liberals favour markets, not businesses. From Adam Smith onwards we have understood that greed is not good unless guided by the invisible hand of the market.
Trump's track record in business does not fill me with optimism. This is a man more inclined to suck up to and donate to politicians to win support for his projects than to focus on what his customers want. He has shown what he thinks politicians are for in a crony capitalist system. God help America if that is a predictor of how he will perform as a politician.
Mr Trump plans to restrict competition to benefit favoured American businesses. That is why he has won the support of unionised blue-collar workers in rustbelt states. In the boardrooms of American big businesses this morning they will be calculating how to use him to channel taxpayers money to them.
There are some positives. He studied economics at Wharton, which — combined with the fact that he has never lived directly as a parasite on the public purse — makes him more qualified in that respect than most leaders. At least it should make him unlikely to say stupid things like Mutti Merkel when she claimed that politics should have primacy over markets.
His election may signal the death of political correctness, freeing Americans to talk honestly about such problems as race relations. That is the essential first step to solving them and would never have happened under a forked-tongue Clinton presidency. On the contrary Clinton would have stoked the imaginary grievances of the Black Lives Matter agitators. Trump thinks climate change is a fraud and while I disagree I am happy his view will stop America committing economic suicide by the kind of crazed overreaction to it Greens and other anticapitalists favour.
In foreign policy terms, he will end the freeloading of nations like France and Germany which have failed to contribute enough to the defence of the West. We can only hope he will prove the correct response to Putin's devious geopolitics is plain speaking. Putin may fabricate invitations from Russian speaking populations for "assistance", but Mr Trump will call them what they are – invasions. How he will respond to them is another matter however. He has already made the first major mistake of his presidency by saying during the campaign that he would be selective in deciding which NATO members to defend.
US voters have punched professional machine politicians in the teeth and they were right to do so. This is a therefore a good morning for Western democracy. It remains to be seen whether it's as good for the leadership of the West.
I agree. He has a Masters in Economics from the prestigious Wharton Business School of the University of Pennsylvania so it's hard to accept he believes some of the trash he talked to get elected. But then see my new post today on the subject, inter alia, of expertise! Metaphorically mining your ports with tariffs and non-tariff barriers to prevent your people buying the stuff they want hurts only your own country. That's why Britain should have declared for unilateral free trade on the day after the EU Referendum, served Article 50 notice immediately and pledged to abolish all tariffs as soon as released from the EUs obligations to impose them.
Posted by: Tom | Friday, November 11, 2016 at 10:35 AM
Indeed we forget that Trump won against incredible odds. That suggests the man has considerable abilities. One particular attribute is that he has lived and worked in the real world so therefore understands it and its needs far better than most presidents before him. Somebody should tell him that trade is the life blood of any nation perhaps he knows(as a business man with world wide investments) and his rhetoric on it is just that. He is right about tearing up trade treatise. Trade does not need treaties as they are just a form of protectionism.
Posted by: Antisthenes | Thursday, November 10, 2016 at 09:51 AM
I have a shrewd North American friend or two too shy to comment on blogs. Let me summarise their comments on this piece anonymously.
"Well said. I have done business with Donald Trump. Most ambitious businessman I have come across. He inspires people who like a challenge and scares the rest. The vote shows the rise of people who like a challenge."
"...All the pols and pundits said Reagan was a total idiot on economics as well. Nothing could have been further from the truth in hindsight. Trump is lights years ahead of Reagan on economics and will be brilliant on business and trade. He gets it. Don't listen to his words too closely, he can be clumsy, watch his actions over the next months."
"... he is probably the most successful businessman to ever run and win the POTUS. If he translates his extraordinary intuition and business to his elected office he will in my view surpass most of his predecessors on economics and getting the US back on track. The guy is a special winner and just blew the competition away when most of the experts, pols and pundits called otherwise. He is formidable and capable beyond most people's imaginations. Donald just started as a politician 18 months ago. Supposed to be clueless...remember. Even many of his closet supporters can't resist focusing on his flaws. Very easy to under estimate this incredible winner."
Posted by: Tom | Wednesday, November 09, 2016 at 04:56 PM
Agreeing with everything you have written I have to say that both a Trump and Clinton presidency was to be feared. Clinton we know what her presidency would be like. Continuity Obama with even greater levels of corruption(dominance by the Clinton Mafia) and incompetence(she is the incompetent in chief). The continuance and expansion of progressive authoritarian, illiberal and devise ways.
Trump is mostly an unknown. Authoritarian and protectionist is what we do know. We can only guess at the rest and you have made a credible stab at it. He will however I believe on just the fact that he is not a progressive be an asset to us conservatives to some degree. The major danger is that if he does follow his protectionist rhetoric with progressive acts then the US and the world's economy will tank.
The Republicans have kept their dominance of Congress which is a relief. If the Democrats had replaced them the Country would have become ungovernable. As it stands now I believe their are enough sensible Republicans so at to mute any excessive actions Trump may attempt. Two other benefits. The supreme court is now safe from left wing control and Hillary Clinton will now end up in prison where she rightly belongs.
Posted by: Antisthenes | Wednesday, November 09, 2016 at 11:36 AM